Greece and Euro crisis at IntCom and nejtillemu

Juncker: Greece is and will irreversibly remain a member of the euro area
BBC, August 14, 2015

How Greece Is Scrambling to Save Its Banks — Again
Bloomberg 23 november 2018

Most of their regulatory capital consists of deferred tax claims against the battered Greek sovereign.

The Athens Stock Exchange Banks Index has lost more than half of its value in 2018

Europe Is Too Exposed to Italy to Let It Go
French and German banks have more than $400 billion at stake and would lose big
if the country left the currency union.
When Greece’s fiscal mismanagement triggered a crisis in 2010, French and German banks were holding about $115 billion in various Greek investments
Bloomberg 29 October 2018

Until Greece can successfully sell a multi-billion euro bond to international investors,
it can’t truly be said to be on a sustainable path.
For now, the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank have chosen to extend and pretend.

“The Greek crisis ends here tonight in Luxembourg.”
Pierre Moscovici, the EU’s economy commissioner, said after the meeting.
FT 22 June 2018

The agreement means the repayment of €96bn of bailout loans,
about 40 per cent of the total Greece needs to repay the eurozone over the coming decades,
will be pushed back 10 years.

Greece's onerous obligations to the IMF, the European Central Bank and European governments can be traced back to April 2010,
when they made a fateful mistake. Instead of allowing Greece to default on its insurmountable debts to private creditors,
they chose to lend it the money to pay in full.
Ashoka Mody, Bruegel 21st April 2015

- Den stora risken var att Grekland skulle utlösa en kris i italienska, franska och tyska banker.
Nu finns i praktiken en EU-garanti för de utestående grekiska statsobligationerna.
Anders Borg, TT februari 2012

Greece - Extend and Pretend, again
An agreement was close that would leave Greece with minimal repayments
until after 2030 on the €228bn it owes to the rest of the eurozone.
FT 21 June 2018

Certain European countries, some of which are the largest lenders to Greece, are against significant debt forgiveness as they don't want to be seen by their citizens as ongoing contributors to what they see as economic malpractices in their southern European neighbor.

The IMF has said that it will not disburse any funds until Europe agrees on specific measures that will make Greek debt more sustainable over the long term.

Greece has a debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) of 180 percent.

For those of us who have been following the Greek economic tragedy for many years,
much of the European view continues to defy economic logic – and for a simple reason:
European politicians worry about the domestic political consequences of granting Greece debt relief, especially ahead of Germany’s federal election in September.
Mohamed A. El-Erian, Project Syndicate 21 June 2017

“extend and pretend”
Europe's Unserious Plan for Greece
The latest deal on debt won’t work, and everybody knows it.
By The Editors, Bloomberg 21 June 2017

Under the compromise deal, the IMF is set to formally join the rescue programme,
but delay providing any money to Athens until the eurozone provides more clarity on what debt relief it is prepared to offer.
FT 15 June 2017

The Eurogroup is asking Greece to do something unprecedented
Historical experience—not just Greece’s experience, but that of a typical advanced country—
is inconsistent with the primary surplus paths that would make Greece’s current debt sustainable.
Matthew C Klein, FT 13 april 2017

IMF has vocally recommended drastic cuts in the present value of the amount demanded by Europe’s “official sector” creditors by, among other methods, locking in the current interest burden for decades.
(The IMF hasn’t volunteered to reduce its claims on Greece, however.)

New research from Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Eike Kreplin, and Ugo Panizza suggests Schaeuble is wrong:
there is no reasonable likelihood that the Greek government can continue without significant further debt relief.

Christine Lagarde said that eurozone creditors must provide considerably more detail on debt relief for Greece
before the fund will take a decision to join the country’s bailout programme.
“There cannot be a specific case for any particular country.”
FT 12 April 2017

IMF under pressure in Washington over Greek bailout
Conservatives in US Congress say Europeans should solve the crisis on their own
FT 17 March 2017

A failure to tell the truth imperils Greece and Europe
If the IMF pulls out, Europe will be free to mismanage the crisis on its own
Wolfgang Münchau, associate editor of the Financial Times, 12 February 2017

Greek debt sustainability was premised on an obviously unfulfillable assumption.

Another untold truth is that Germany will never forgive Greek debt.
This is because the German parliament will not accept it

Italy’s membership of a monetary union with Germany is also transparently unsustainable.
Yet no Italian prime minister has ever mounted a credible challenge to the way the system is governed.

When the truth dies, we should not be surprised if alternative facts are put in its place.

Greece
European nations are over-represented on the board relative to their size in the global economy.
Wielding that power to dissuade the fund from demanding debt relief from eurozone governments
is a clear conflict of interest and poses a threat to the fund’s credibility and independence.
Eurozone governments have behaved poorly on this issue. They deserve to be defeated.
FT Editorial 9 February 2017

Right from the beginning of the Greek crisis in 2010, the political need to shield first their banks and investors,
and then their taxpayers, has warped the response of eurozone governments.

IMF board split over bailout terms for Greece
Rare public division amid stand-off with EU over country’s ‘explosive’ debt path
FT 7 February 2017

In an as-yet unpublished report on the Greek economy the IMF’s staff argue that Greece’s debts are unsustainable and
on an “explosive” path to reaching almost three times the country’s annual economic output by 2060

After a meeting to discuss it on Monday the IMF issued an unusual statement conceding that its board was split over its findings.

“Most” of the 24 board members “agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal” contained in its regular “Article 4” review of the Greek economy, the IMF said.
But “some" had different views on the fiscal path and debt sustainability”.

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2016 Article IV Consultation,
and Discusses Ex Post Evaluation of Greece’s 2012 Extended Fund Facility
IMF February 7, 2017

The European Stability Mechanism gave the green light to a series of modest measures
that will cut Greece’s 180 per cent debt-to-GDP ratio by 20 percentage points over the next 47 years.
FT 23 January 2017

A Greek tragedy: how much can one nation take?
Greece’s economic crisis has disappeared from the minds of many in Europe,
but inside the country, the pain is only getting worse
FT 20 January 2017

IMF and EU policymakers take Greece bailout spat online
War of words breaks out between officials over austerity measures
FT 15 December 2016

The Eurogroup is the real villain in Greece today, not the IMF
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 14 December 2016

Greece was patently insolvent. It needed a textbook debt write-off to restore viability.
This was blocked because everybody feared a calamitous chain-reaction through Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy.

These errors were forensically dissected by the IMF's Independent Evaluation Office.
The conclusion was that Greece had suffered an historic injustice, that Greece was repeatedly blamed for failures that stemmed from the stupidity of the Troika policy itself,
and that the country should be made whole again.

Greece cannot be condemned to austerity for ever
Myths about the country’s rescue package must be confronted
Pierre Moscovici, European commissioner for economic and financial affairs, taxation and customs,
FT 15 December 2016

The next step is to conclude the second programme review, which hinges on an agreement to bring the IMF on board.
This cannot happen as long as positions are defined by dogma or short-term political tactics with no regard for the social effect of the measures proposed.

A fiscal surplus too far for the Greek economy
The EU’s softening attitude to public deficits should include Greece
FT editorial 23 November 2016

Should Greece leave the Euro?
But this is the wrong question. Unless there is a considerable shift in Eurozone politics, Greece WILL leave the Euro - eventually.
The question is when, and how.
Coppola, 8 June 2016

The Eurozone desperately needs to strengthen its institutions relative to nation states,
develop procedures for managing sovereign insolvency, and impose loss sharing on official as well as private sector creditors.
But since these reforms would not serve the interests of creditor countries, it seems unlikely that they will ever happen.
Eventually, therefore, the Euro is likely to fail.

EU har funnit sig i att Grekland aldrig kommer att kunna (eller vilja) betala tillbaka sina skulder.
Alla miljarderna har gått upp i rök. Fast av principiella och framför allt inrikespolitiska skäl kan man inte säga det öppet,
eftersom det vore detsamma som att peka ut den som kommer att bli tvungen att ta hand om notan: de europeiska skattebetalarna.
Richard Swartz, kolumn DN 22 oktober 2016

Alltså tiger man.

I stället skjuts amorteringar och räntor på framtiden, ett ekonomiskt illusionstrick där Europas politiker
kallt räknar med att ha glömska, inflation och tiden på sin sida.

I Aten har detta de facto redan tolkats som en avskrivning av alla landets skulder,
så att man mer för sakens skull insisterar på att få det bekräftat även formellt.

En kaxig narcissist som förre finansministern Yanis Varoufakis har tvingats lämna scenen. Ingen saknar honom.

The /IMF-EU/deal requires finance ministers to come clean before the end of this year
on what debt relief measures they intend to propose.
Wolfgang Münchau, FT 29 May 2016

“We on the part of the IMF have made a major concession - we had argued that these debt-relief measures should be approved up front
and we have agreed that they will be approved at the end of the program,” said IMF Director of European Department Poul Thomsen,
Bloomberg 25 May 2016

The IMF and calling Berlin’s bluff over Greece
Wolfgang Münchau, FT 22 May 2016

Germany are trapped in the lie that Greece is solvent, which is what their own backbenchers were told.
Without that lie, Greece would no longer be a eurozone member.

But the lie cannot be sustained.
IMF insistence on debt relief is what could expose this lie.

If Europe wants to continue to ‘extend and pretend’ so be it. But it should be with their own money

Christine Lagarde letter to Eurozone finance ministers demands:
drop all the talk about new austerity measures and quickly agree a plan for debt relief
so that a deal can be met before a possible Greek default in July.
Peter Spiegel, FT Alphaville 6 May 2016

Greece faces more than 10 billion euros of debt repayments in June and July
which may strain its finances
Bloomberg 4 April 2016

Juncker: Greece is and will irreversibly remain a member of the euro area
BBC, August 14, 2015

My criticism of eurozone policy towards Greece is not the harshness of the adjustment
but its fundamental macroeconomic illiteracy.
Wolfgang Münchau, July 21, 2013

Martin Wolf:
There are no /Greek/ government deficits to finance consumption (or almost none).
So money would be used to pay interest and amounts due
Rolf Englund blog 9 July 2015

Nobody was forced to lend to Greece.
Initially, private lenders were happy to lend to the Greek government on much the same terms as to the German government.
Then, in 2010, it became clear the money would not be repaid.
Rather than agree to the write-off that was needed, governments (and the International Monetary Fund)
decided to bail out the private creditors by refinancing Greece.
Martin Wolf, FT 21 April 2015

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras: "We do not need an agreement. We need a solution"
BBC 5 June 2015

"For a small, open economy like Cyprus,
Euro adoption provides protection from international financial turmoil."
18/01/2008, Trichet

IMF demands debt relief as price for involvement in Greek bail-out
Telegraph 14 January 2016

IMF remained cool over the prospect of providing more financial aid to Greece,
insisting its support was still conditional on the EU granting Greece substantial debt relief.
"In addition to a comprehensive policy package, Greece also requires debt relief from European partners," said IMF spokesman Gerry Rice.

Spain
Greece's creditor powers have delayed talks over reducing the country's debt mountain
for fear of emboldening anti-austerity forces in the southern Mediterranean, its finance minister has claimed.
Telegraph 10 November 2015

Euclid Tsakalotos said EU lenders would not discuss the question of Greece's debt burden, which stands at 200pc of GDP, until after the Spanish elections are held in the new year.

IMF could now see its involvement when its Greek programme ends in March 2016.
In debt sustainability analysis carried out by body, it has suggested Greece may need a full moratorium on payments for 30 years to finally end its reliance on international rescues.
Telegraph 1 October 2015

Grekiska banker skyldiga 1.000 miljarder
Detta diagram fann jag i en artikel av Marin Wolf i Financial Times.
Rolf Englund blog 2015-12-23

Bank resolution will become more complicated after January 1, when new eurozone rules will force depositors to face the costs of rescue programmes.
Under the EU’s Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD),
shareholders and depositors will have to take a hit worth 8pc of their total liabilities before lenders receive official sector aid.
Telegraph 19 Sep 2015

Greece could struggle to win German support for its third bailout programme after
IMF confirmed last night that it was not yet prepared to put any cash into the deal.
The Times, August 12 2015

Varoufakis:
"The International Monetary Fund... is throwing up its hands collectively despairing at a programme that is simply founded on unsustainable debt...
and yet this is a programme that everybody is working towards implementing."
He added: "Ask anyone who knows anything about Greece's finances and they will tell you this deal is not going to work,"
BBC 12 August 2015

Bernanke Isn’t Serious
His latest on Greece and the euro suggests that the deeper problems lie not in Greek fecklessness
but in the refusal of the core — basically Germany — to allow either monetary or fiscal policies that would offset the downdraft from austerity in the periphery.
He even questions the sacred status of “structural reform”
Paul Krugman 17 July 2015

When the French finance minister Mr Sapin arrived in Brussels at midday, he received a shock:
Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, was armed with a one-page paper advocating
a Greek “timeout from the eurozone” for “at least the next five years”
if Athens did not accept the bloc’s exacting conditions for a new bailout.
FT 17 July 2015

“The eurozone is going through a war of religion with a northern Europe that’s Calvinist and that doesn’t want to forgive the sinners,
and a Catholic Europe in the south that wants to turn the page,” said Emmanuel Macron, the French economy minister and former Rothschild banker.

Om man ger ett treårigt lån till Grekland på t ex 100 miljarder euro,
skall man då bli förvånad om Grekland efter tre år kommer tillbaka och vill låna 100 miljarder igen
så att de kan lösa det förfallande lånet?
Rolf Englund blog 9 juli 2015

So why don't we have a major crisis in Turkey and why is Turkey not on the brink of default when neighboring Greece is?
The answer is simple - It's the exchange rate exchange rate regime stupid!
The Market monetarist, 7 July 2015

At the end of the day, the central issue behind the Greek crisis hasn’t changed: it is still, ultimately, a question of who, picks up the bill.
If everyone avoids their share, the result is unfortunate.
If, as with Germany in 1990, everyone accepts their share, the result is tranquillity.
Germans, however, wanted to be reunited. It is still far from obvious that the nations of Europe feel the same way about each other.
Stephen King, HSBC’s Chief Global Economist and author of When the Money Runs Out, FT 6 July 2015

Om greker flyttar sina pengar från grekiska till tyska banker, stiger då Greklands skulder?
Rolf Englund blog 2015-07-06

IMF admits: we failed to realise the damage austerity would do to Greece
Guardian, 5 June 2015

Dear Mr Tsipras,
You should not be reluctant to leave the euro.
Even if you somehow manage to cobble together a deal with the creditors, this would not solve your country’s crisis.
Roger Bootle 21 June 2015

You may recall that your country’s situation was closely examined in a report, lead-authored by me, which won the 2012 Wolfson Prize.
My advice builds on that report. I have ten key points:
I realise that your government is strapped for cash and you will not be wanting to fork out for expensive consultancy.
(Did you not employ Goldman Sachs to ease your passage into the euro? That must have cost a pretty penny.)

But you can download
our report for free from the Capital Economics website.

They are obsessed with the financial problem, i.e. with getting their money back.
But your fellow Greeks’ plight derives from your economy’s catastrophic loss of output.
Even if Greece is granted a significant amount of debt forgiveness, this would do next to nothing to bring an economic recovery.

nejtillemu.com